Annual buy now, pay later (BNPL) global market size 2019-2021, with forecasts to 2028

Global buy now, pay later (BNPL) transactions are predicted to increase by nearly 450 billion USD between 2021 and 2026. This would mean a further acceleration of what was seen between 2019 and 2021 - when the alternative payment method increased by almost 400 percent. Regardless, BNPL reached a global market share of around three percent in 2021 - with eight out of 10 top global buy now, pay later markets worldwide being located in northwestern Europe. The market share of BNPL services in domestic e-commerce payments in both Sweden and Germany, for instance, was around ten times higher than the market share in global e-commerce payments.

Big international names, local competition?

Common names that spring to mind when it comes to BNPL include Klarna (Sweden), Affirm (United States), and Afterpay (Australia), as all three providers had millions of active users in 2021. The three are sometimes joined by Quadpay/Zip (United States) in some sources. These apps are popular in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Europeans, for instance, downloaded Klarna significantly more than other BNPL apps available to them. That is not to say all countries prefer BNPL through Klarna, however: In Switzerland, it is expected that one of the country’s most popular payment methods - mobile payment option TWINT – will implement payments in installments to compete with Klarna.

Uncertainty going forward

It is uncertain whether the initial success of buy now, pay later will hold. In May 2022 – shortly after the figures provided here were released – Klarna announced it would cut roughly 10 percent of its global staff. CEO and co-founder Sebastian Siemiatkowski cited an expected decline in consumer spending, caused by the war in Ukraine and growing inflation worldwide since. Regardless, some experts still fear that having the option to do payments might be too enticing for low-income households – especially in a time of uncertainty when it comes to personal finance.